【摘要】 生态风险评价 (ERA)是风险论与生态学、环境科学、地学等多学科相互交叉的新兴边缘学科。关于生态风险的定量评价和综合研究是目前国际上一个热点问题。文章在探讨生态风险评价的内涵和可操作性的基础上 ,试图就单个风险源给出一种实用的风险评价方法———盐渍化土壤的盐渍风险评价。将灰色系统理论应用于风险评价 ,构建了实用的生态风险评价模型 ,并对具体实例进行了计算分析。计算结果表明 :在绿洲地区所选取的 2 5个样区中 ,土地盐渍化风险很大的占 8% ,风险较大的占 2 0 % ,风险一般的占 44 % ,风险小的占 2 8% ,其中生态风险很大或较大者属土地盐渍化治理的重点地区。文中结果可作为绿洲农田系统盐渍化风险防范与化解的定量依据更多还原

【Abstract】 Ecological risk analysis is a new marginal subject which studies issues on risk theory,modern ecology and environmental science, etc. Currently, quantitative assessing and integrative study of ecological risk is a significant issue in the world. This paper tries to work out a simple assessment method as to single risk source, i.e. salinization risk, based on the systematic study of its basic properties and the maneuverability of ecological risk. Applying the gray system theory in risk assessment, a useful risk assessment model is designed. A case study shows how to calculate the ecological risk. The result is as follows: among the 25 sample areas chosen in the oasis, areas of the greatest salinization risk is 8%, greater risk is 20%, average risk is 44%, while least risk is 28%. The first 2 kinds are those areas needing meliorating. The result can be used as a basis in resolving the salinization risk in the oasis.更多还原