【摘要】 对 2 0世纪 80年代以来青藏高原东北部青南牧区和甘南牧区气候变化的统计分析表明 ,该地区呈现出气温升高、降水量减少和蒸发量增大的明显趋势。两个牧区年平均气温升高的边际倾向分别为 0 .3℃ / 10年和 0 .5℃ / 10年 ,年降水量减少的边际倾向分别为 - 2 8.6mm/ 10年和- 2 3.5mm/ 10年。 90年代该地区主要牧业县多年平均气温比 5 0～ 70年代升高了 0 .4～ 0 .8℃ ;多年平均降水量减少的趋势尤以甘南牧区明显 ,最多减少了 87.5mm ;两个牧区年平均气温升高 1℃时 ,年蒸发量分别增加 99mm和 114mm。气候暖干化 ,已经造成该地区干旱缺水 ,草地退化、沙化和鼠害猖獗 ,草畜矛盾加剧 ,严重威胁到牧区的生存和发展 ,也影响到长江、黄河中下游地区的可持续发展更多还原

【Abstract】 The statistical analysis of climate changes in south Qinghai and Gannan grassland of Qingzang Plateau showed the apparent tendency of an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall during the last two decades in these regions. The marginal propensities of average annual temperature are 0.3℃/10a and 0.5℃/10a,while the marginal propensities of average annual rainfall are-28.6mm/10a and- 23.5 mm/10a,respectively.In main pasturing regions, average annual temperature were increased by 0.4～0.8℃ during the period 1990～2000,compared with that during the period 1950～1970,while an apparent decrease in annual rainfall has been found in Gannan grassland,with maximum decrease of 87.5mm.It showed that the ground evaporation was increase by 99mm and 114mm in the two grasslands with an increase of 1℃ in average annual temperature.As a result of the climate warming and drying, the environment has been deteriorated,the problem of soil drought, grassland degraded and the damage by rats have seriously threatened the survive of grasslands as well as sustainable development in the regions of Yellow River and Yangtze River.更多还原