【摘要】 在分析沼泽的蒸发、蒸腾、降雨、产流等水循环环节和沼泽水量的季节动态基础上 ,利用系统动力学原理和方法对沼泽湿地蓄水量进行动态仿真 ,以预测沼泽蓄水量的动态变化 ;通过对比研究 ,分析沼泽的冷湿效应及其与沼泽面积消长的相互关系 ,建立相关的统计模型 ;再通过植物生长的现场实验 ,研究沼泽代表植物对水分条件的依赖性 ,找出沼泽最小生态需水量临界 ;最后以沼泽最小生态需水量临界值为依据 ,结合统计模型和沼泽蓄水量动态仿真手段 ,计算沼泽的安全阈值 .对三江平原沼泽湿地的案例分析验证了该方法的可行性 .更多还原

【Abstract】 The lowest water requirement of the wetlands was demonstrated through different simulations. Based on the relationship between the area of wetlands and its effects on air temperature and humidity,some useful statistical models were established. According to the theory and principles of system dynamics (SD),a dynamic simulation model of the wetlands’ retaining water was compiled in DYNAMO language. Finally,the safety threshold of the wetlands was assessed based on its water ecological factors. The feasibility of the method was demonstrated by a case study on the wetlands in Sanjiang Plain of China.更多还原