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夏秋连旱转好雨天气分析预报系统研究

The study of analysis& forecast system to the weather process from continually summer- autumn drought to a nice rain

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【作者】 张临平张素云王巧霞秦爱民李增朋

【Author】 Zhang Linping,Zhang Suyun,Wang Qiaoxia,Qin Aimin,Li Zengping (Linfen meteorological bureau,Linfen Shanxi 041000,China)

【机构】 山西临汾市气象局山西临汾市气象局 山西临汾041000山西临汾041000山西临汾041000

【摘要】 该系统与Micaps工作平台设置接口,利用新技术所提供的各种图表工具和信息,对数值预报(NWP)形势场进行逐日反查分析比较,归纳出一些与临汾地区出现好雨相关好的形势场。对这些(NWP)形势场与08时实时资料形势场对应分析,确定高空环流型、低层影响系统及各层预报指标;分析各层物理量场分布特征、卫星云图的不同种类云系结构演变规律等建立模型。系统投入业务运行以来效果良好,提高了转折性天气预报准确率。

【Abstract】 This system connects with MICAPS work platform,makes daily reversal check, analysis and compare to the situation field of numerical forecasting (NWP) by using various graph tools and information provided by the new technology,induces some situation fields which are better related to nice rain in Linfen area. We according analyze the situation field (NWP) with 08 o’clock real-time data situations field, definite the upper air circulation and the forecast index of each layer, establish model based on the characters of each physical variant field distribution and the evolution rule of the cloud structure on satellite cloud chart. This system runs effectively in operational work,enhance the accurate rate of weather forecast.

【关键词】 好雨分析预报
【Key words】 nice rainanalysisforecast
  • 【文献出处】 山西气象 ,Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly , 编辑部邮箱 ,2002年01期
  • 【分类号】P456.1
  • 【下载频次】14
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