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山西及邻区地下水位中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究

Study on Recognition Mark and Prediction Method of Medium-and Short-Term Anomaly of Groundwater Level of Shanxi and Its Neighbour Region

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【作者】 张淑亮范雪芳何申红

【Author】 ZHANG Shu-liang,FAN Xue-fang,HE Shen-hong (Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province ,Shanxi,Taiyuan 030002,China)

【机构】 山西省地震局山西省地震局 山西太原030002山西太原030002山西太原030002

【摘要】 采用了“九五”地震科技攻关地下水物理及 EIS2 0 0 0提供的多种数据处理方法 ,对山西省及邻近地区的地下水位观测资料进行了处理 ,筛选出较好的数据处理方法和异常指标。研究结果表明 ,适应于地下水位数据处理的方法有模糊数学从属函数法及水位变差法 ,得出如下结论 :模糊数学从属函数法的原始数据大于 2倍均方差、从属函数 μ≥ 0 .5可视为异常 ,异常控制线为 5 % ,滑动窗长为 3,异常出现 1a左右 ,在其周围会有相应的地震发生 ;水位变差值ΔC>0 (m ) ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,可视为异常

【Abstract】 The fine processing for the observation data of the groundwater level in Shanxi province and its neighbour region was made using kinds of data processing method from the key task research on seismological science of Ninth Five-Year-Plan and EIS 2000 ,the relative good data processing methods and anomaly indexes were screened.The conclusion showed that the subfunction method of the fuzzy mathematics and the variation method of the water level are suited to the data processing of the ground water level.It was drawn that the primary data with the deviation larger than twice and the subfunction μ≥0.5 are anomaly in the subfunction method of the fuzzy methematics,if the control line of the anomaly is 5 %,the moving window length is 3,the duration of the anomaly is about 1 a,the corresponding earthquake will occur in the neighbour region.The variation value of the water level ΔC>0(m) and the duration ≥12 months can be regarded as anomaly.

【基金】 科技部“强地震中短期预报方法研究”课题 (96— 91 3— 0 9— 0 1— 0 3)部分内容
  • 【文献出处】 山西地震 ,Earthquake Research In Shanxi , 编辑部邮箱 ,2002年01期
  • 【分类号】P641.7;P315.75
  • 【被引频次】3
  • 【下载频次】55
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