【摘要】 采用 195 1年至 1999年湖北省荆沙市和监利县的资料 ,对荆江大堤的管涌等险情与水情要素 (年最高水位、设防水位持续天数、警戒水位持续天数 )分别进行相关分析。结果显示 :水情要素与管涌显著相关 ,其中最为密切的是警戒水位持续天数 ,其次是设防水位持续天数。采用多项式对 195 1年至 1985年发生的管涌与年最高水位、设防水位持续天数、警戒水位持续天数分别进行拟合。荆沙市的警戒水位持续天数达到 12d后 ,管涌明显增加。监利县的警戒水位累计达到 30d后 ,管涌明显增加更多还原

【Abstract】 The record of embankment piping in Jingsha Jianli river section of Yangtze River form 1951 to 1999 are adopted to establish the relationship between piping and various hydrological factors,including yearly highest water level,duration of higher than flood control level and duration of higher than warning level.It is found that the piping is highly related to the accumulated days of higher than warning level.All relationships are fitted by polynomials according to the data 1951 to 1985.The fitted curves show that the occurrence of piping remarkably increases when the duration of level higher than warning is longer than 12 days at Jingsha Station,and it also increases when accumulated days excess 30 at Jianli Station.更多还原