【摘要】 本文针对当前数值预报产品释用工作中通常存在的因子的瞬时量与预报降水的累积量这样一个时间尺度的不相匹配的问题 ,提出了用相应时段内因子的累积量预报降水的累积量的预报方案。用该方法处理的累积因子与降水量之间的相关系数 ,与瞬时因子相比有显著提高。以此为依据 ,用 HL AFS数值预报产品 ,建立了一个降水量滚动预报系统 ,有较好的使用效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,pointing to the issue,usually existing in the interpretation and use of numerical forecast production,that temporal scales between the instantaneous value factors and cumulative value of the forecasted precipitation don’t match, a new method forecasting cumulation precipitation is put forward by the use of cumulation factors in time interval corresponding with the time interval of cumulation precipitation.The interrelation quotients of the cumulation factors transacted by the method with the precipitation obviously exceed that of the instantaneous factors.According to the method,using HLAFS numerical forecast production,a scroll forecast system of precipitation is established and the effect is good.更多还原