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深层地温在汛期旱涝趋势预报中的应用
The Application of Ground Temperature to Drought and Flood Forecast in Flood Season
【摘要】 根据近 5 0年汛期降水资料 ,对郑州地区旱涝进行分级 ,并分析了其气候特征 ;利用 1981年以来不同深度地温资料 ,统计分析了与汛期降水的相关关系 ,进而选用显著相关因子建立汛期总降水量的多元回归方程。经检验 ,不仅其历史拟合率比较高 ,而且对 1999年和 2 0 0 0年的试预报也取得了较好的效果。
【Abstract】 Based on the data of precipitation in zhengzhou of the past 50 years, the climate characters of drought and flood in flood season has been analyzed. By using the data of ground temperature since 1981,we have calculated the pertinence between the ground temperature and precipitation of flood season. Thus the multiple regression equation on the total precipitation in flood season was formed .In 1999 and 2000, the result of practical experiment is fine.
【关键词】 较深层地温;
相关系数;
汛期旱涝趋势;
多元回归;
【Key words】 Ground temperature; Correlation coefficient; Drought and flood in flood season; Multiple regression;
【Key words】 Ground temperature; Correlation coefficient; Drought and flood in flood season; Multiple regression;
- 【文献出处】 河南气象 ,Meteorology Journal of Henan , 编辑部邮箱 ,2002年02期
- 【分类号】P456.9
- 【被引频次】8
- 【下载频次】67