【摘要】 在公路网规划中 ,正确地确定区域的公路运输量是一项重要的基础工作 ,公路运输量的时间序列具有复杂的非线性关系 ,难以用单一的模型进行预测 ,针对时间序列具有趋势变动、周期变动和不规则变动的特点 ,文章提出用综合集成的方法分别考虑公路运输量序列中所隐含的 3种变动 ,并针对 3种不同变动的特点分别建立相应的模型进行分析 ,在此基础上再从总体上把握运输量时间序列的变化规律。并结合实例对模型进行了验证 ,表明具有较高的拟合精度 ,为公路运输量的预测提供了一种有效的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 To ascertain the highway transport volume is an important work in highway network planning. The time series of highway transport volume has a complex nonlinear relation and is difficult to forecast with a simple model. It is impossible to consider all elements in forecasting highway transport volume, but the effect of those elements is certain to be reflected in time series. Time series includes three parts-tendency fluctuation, period fluctuation and arbitrary fluctuation, so time series can be analyzed separately.In this paper, a comprehensive model is presented in which the three parts of time series are considered. An example indicates that the forecasting result is more realistic than that of other models.更多还原