【摘要】 贝叶斯预测模型是运用贝叶斯统计方法进行的一种预测 ,贝叶斯统计不同于一般统计方法 ,其不仅利用模型信息和数据信息 ,而且充分利用了样品的先验信息。根据贝叶斯预测模型的特点 ,介绍了几个贝叶斯预测模型的预测过程和计算步骤 ,并对南宁地区自 1 970年以来 1 9年间的气温变化进行了预测。根据计算结果 ,分析了不同贝叶斯预测模型的预测特点 ,并给出了几点结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Bayes′prediction model is a method based on Bayes statistics.Bayes statistics is different from generic statistical method,in which not only the model information and data information,but also transcendental information is used adequately.According to the characters of Bayes′prediction model,the prediction process and calculating steps of several Bayes′prediction models are introduced,and the air temperature variety among 19 years in Nanning area since 1970 is predicted.On the base of the calculating results,the prediction characters of different Bayes′prediction model are analyzed,and some conclusions are given.更多还原