【摘要】 估算了巨大都市、大都市、中小城市及农村(其他地区)的能源消费情况.建立了各地区人口及GDP预测模型.根据各地区人口和GDP增长率及由CGEn模型预测的2种计算方案下的各部门各燃料类别的能源消费量,对4个地域2030年前的能源消费量进行了估计.同时,在考虑燃料性质及大气污染防治对策动向的条件下,估算了现况及到2030年的SO2、NOx和CO2的排放情况.结果表明,未来的30a中国将大大加快都市化特别是中小都市化的发展进程.从各地区能源消费量及SO2、NOx和CO2的排放量构成来看,都市主要集中于电力、钢铁、水泥等能源消费密集型企业.农作物秸秆及薪柴是中国农村的主要能源和废气排放源.更多还原

【Abstract】 The whole country of China is divided into four regions according to the population size: megalopolis, metropolitan, small and medium\|sized city and farm village (the other region). The energy consumptions of status quo by region are estimated. The linear forecast models on population and GDP by region are established. Based on the future energy consumption of the whole country predicted by CGEn model for two scenarios, the future energy consumptions by scenario and region are estimated until 2030. According to the given emission factors, the emissions of SO2, NOx and CO2 by scenario and region are estimated. The energy consumption and SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions mainly concentrate on the small and medium\|sized city, and they concentrate on electrical power, steel, concrete factories in city, but on crop residues in village.更多还原