【摘要】 该文论述气候对农业影响的定量评价模式和预评方法。利用WMO推荐的气候异常度指标,确定了气候条件(年景)的定量评价模式、旱涝等级标准及旱涝趋势预评价模式;建立了主要农作物气候灾害损失率的计算模型;提出了作物的气候趋势产量预报模式、主要农作物生长期内气候条件评价及不同生长阶段降水量的评价方法。这些模式和方法经两年试用,具有较好的定量识别能力,其方法和结论可指导其他区域开展类似研究和业务工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact degrees of climate to agriculture were discussed and some quantitative treatments about them were made. The quantitative assessment models of climate conditions were set according to a WMO’s criterion of climate abnormal degree. The grade standards of drought-flood disasters and the pre-assessment models of their development tendencies were also set by the same criterion. The calculative models of losing ratio of climate disasters of main crops were raised. And the forecasting models of climate tendency yield of crops and the methods of climate condition assessments of main crops in the growing periods and precipitation assessments in different growing phases were put forward in the paper. These models and methods have superior quantitative identification ability and can be used as a reference for similar research and operation in other regions.更多还原