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短期电力负荷预报中几种异常数据的处理

Identification and Management to Anomalous Data in Short-term Load Forecasting

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【作者】 陈亚红穆钢段方丽

【Author】 CHEN Ya-hong 1,MU Gang 1,DUAN Fang-li 2 (1.Department of Electric Power Engineering,Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering,Jilin City 132012;2.Nylon 66 Salt Plant of Shenma Group of China,Henan Province 467000)

【机构】 东北电力学院中国神马集团尼龙六六盐厂 吉林吉林132012吉林吉林132012河南467000

【摘要】 分析了历史负荷中异常数据对负荷预报的影响 ,对实际电力系统中遇到的异常数据进行了分类 ,并对各类数据的处理从工程实际出发采用了适当的方法。给出了对预报日预报时刻后至 2 4点的数据补足算法。具体电力系统的算例从统计意义上说明了异常数据处理前后 ,预报误差的变化

【Abstract】 The influence of anomalous data consists in the historic load data to load forecasting is analysed .Different management methods on the basis of engineering reality are given to various anomalous data.Especially,an arithematic of supplementing load data after the forecast time of the day during forecasting day is introduced with its efficiency proved by an example.The example shows the change of forecasting errors before/after dealing with the anomalous data at the same time.

  • 【文献出处】 东北电力学院学报 ,Journal of Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering , 编辑部邮箱 ,2002年02期
  • 【分类号】TM714
  • 【被引频次】114
  • 【下载频次】992
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