【摘要】 在简要阐述了细胞自动机模型的基本概念及其在地理学中的应用历史后 ,以海南省海口市的城市发展为例 ,初步探讨了应用该模型 ,对蔓延生长、中心生长、沿交通线生长和农村居民点城市化等四种城市扩展类型进行模拟 ,并将模拟成果与 1996及 2 0 0 0年城市实际发展状况作对比分析 ,模拟精度达到 82 %以上。我们认为 ,基于遥感和地理信息系统的细胞自动机模型应用是城市发展预测研究的一个有效工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cellular automata (CA) model is a powerful mathematical tool. It has been applied to study of geography since 1950s. A method of simulating urbanization with CA model is presented in the paper with the Haikou City as the case. In this study, four types of city expanding were used to simulate the evolution of Haikou during the period of 1987 to 2000. They are expanding from exist city cell, around the city center, along the transportation line, and rural resident spot. According to the spatial occupation reality of Haikou in 1996 and 2000, the simulation accuracy is greater than 82%. CA model is considered a useful tool for urbanization research.更多还原