【摘要】 分析了形成２０世纪长江３次巨洪的３个遥相关因子：（１）太阳黑子活动，（２）厄尔尼诺事件，（３）青藏高原南部大震．依据长江巨洪和遥相关因子的基本事实，讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律。指出当３个因子的出现时间互相重叠时，长江很可能发生巨洪，这对长江巨洪的超长期预测具有重要的指导作用．更多还原

【Abstract】 Three far correlation factors resulting in three large floods along the Yangtze River in the 20th century are analyzed as follws: (1) sunspot activity, (2) EL Nino event, (3) drastic earthquake in the south of the Tibet Plateau. According to the basic facts between the large flood along the Yangtze River and the far correlation factor, the statistical law of the large flood along the Yangtze River is discussed. It is pointed out that when the arising times of three factors reduplicate, the large flood will probably arise along the Yangtze River, which is of important indication function for the over long-term forecast of the large flood along the Yangtze River.更多还原