【摘要】 目的　本文讨论了住院医疗保险精算中预期住院费用和住院天数的估计方法。方法　利用住院医疗保险的实际资料讨论了矩估计、变换矩估计、极大似然估计和蒙特卡洛马尔柯夫链 (MCMC)法在估计预期住院费用和住院天数中的应用。结果　在住院费用和住院天数符合对数正态分布时 ,上述四种方法的估计结果非常接近。结论　先找出住院费用和天数的总体分布 ,再合理选用以上四种方法估计出的总体均数和方差有更好的精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective It’s very important in the premium calculation of Hospital Insurance to discuss the estimate methods of the expected length of stay and expense in hospital.Methods With the claims data of social and private medical insurance,the moment estimate,modified moment estimate,maximum likelihood function estimate and the Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were employed to get the estimation.Results The four kinds of methods get the similar estimation when the length of stay and expense in hospital fit the logarithm normal distribution.Conclusion You can get the accurate estimate with the proper one among the four kinds of estimated methods when you have found the distribution of the length of stay and expense in hospital.更多还原