【摘要】 基于通信的列车控制系统 (CBTC)极有可能成为未来铁路的发展方向 ,只是目前人们对它的安全性还抱有疑虑。笔者给出一种利用马尔可夫模型分析 CBTC安全性的方法。利用系统分解和模型压缩的方法解决状态空间的激增问题。将 CBTC设备分为故障—降级型和故障—安全型两类 ,分别建立子模型 ,分析人员因素及设备故障覆盖率对系统安全性的影响。根据子模型间的独立性 ,将各子模型的事故率相加获得系统的事故率更多还原

【Abstract】 The communication based train control (CBTC) system is very likely to be the developing trend of the railway in future; however, there still is controversy in its safety aspects. Now a method for analyzing the safety of CBTC by Markov model is provided. According to the feature of CBTC, system decomposition and model compression are used to solve the problem of state proliferation. The equipment of CBTC is classified into two types, namely the failure degrade type and failure safe type. Sub models are then set up respectively. The effects of human error and the equipment failure coverage on the safety of CBTC are analyzed. Based on the orthogonality of sub models, the summation of accident rates of individual sub model gives the total accident rate.更多还原