【摘要】 针对当前中国进出口与经济增长的关系的争论 ,本文根据 1 991 .1～ 1 999.1 2中国进口、出口与总产出等月度资料 ,对我国进出口与经济增长进行分期协整检验 ,如果发现进出口与经济增长存在长期均衡关系 ,但不同时期的关系有所不同。 1 991 .1～ 1 995.1 2期间进口与经济增长正相关 ,而出口与经济增长负相关 ;1 996.1～ 1 999.1 2期间进出口与经济增长则都正相关。这同时也说明我国经济增长现在已摆脱供给约束 ,正在向需求约束转变更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the controversy about the relation of import, export and economic growth, this paper analyzed the relation of them with coint egration test according to the monthly data from 1991 to 1999. The result indica tes that there is long-term equilibrium among import, export and economic growt h, but the relationship is different at different term. At the term of 1991.1～1 995.12, there is a positive correlation between import and economic growth, but there is a negative correlation between export and economic growth. At the t erm of 1996.1～1999.12, there are positive correlations all. This proves that Ch ina’s economic development has already got rid of the restriction of supply, and is transforming forward the restriciton of demand.更多还原