【摘要】 对 196 0～ 1990年 5～ 10月移进或生成于 12 0°E以西 15～ 2 3°N海面上的南海热带气旋进行统计分析 ,得到了它们的季节活动规律及对红河州影响的移动路径 .探讨了热带气旋与西太平洋副热带高压 ,以及其它天气系统配合对红河州的影响过程 ,并从影响程度的大小进行区域划分 ,给出了热带气旋进入第一影响区和第二影响区后未来 48h内的降水概率 ,从而建立起路径预报判别指标与未来 2 4h的路径预报方程更多还原

【Abstract】 A statistical analysis has been finished, using the number of tropical Cyclone entering or emerging at the west ocean surface of 15°N to 23°N and 120°E between May and October from 1960 to 1990.Based on the analysis, it has been made conclusion about the law of seasonal movement of topical cyclone over the South China Sea, the effect of tropical cyclone tracks of movement at Honghe,the relationship between cyclone and Subtropical High over Western Pacific and the impact with the other weather system on Honghe.The differentiation of area also has been used on the effect of different extent about tropical cyclone on Honghe.The resurlt has shown that Probability of rainfall in next 48 hours when cyclone have entered the first effect area and the second area.The tracks Prediction of discriminatory exponent and equation of next 24 hours has been established.更多还原