【摘要】 指出了灰色模型 ( GM)的方程组存在着严重的方程病态性问题。进一步分析表明 ,GM模型产生病态的主要原因是采用累加数减少随机性时使得模型阶数上升和采用最小二乘法求解正规方程组时出现的强病态性。本文分析了一个被广泛引用的算例 ,结论是 GM模型的使用必须十分谨慎。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper points out that in the equation group of grey model (GM) there exists serious illness problem. Further discussion shwos that the illness of GM models arise from the increase of the model order due to using accumulating numbers to reduce and eliminate randomicity, and the strong illness due to using least squares estimation algorithm to solve the normal equation group of GM models. A widely refered example is analysed and the conclusion is that grey model should be used with great caution.更多还原