【摘要】 杉木炭疽病流行的时间动态类型介于单年流行病害与积年流行病害之间或者更接近于积年流行病害类型 ,遵循逻辑斯蒂模型。依据 1991- 1993年在福建省三明市的调查资料 ,采用逻辑斯蒂模型建立该病的中期预测预报方程 :ln[x2 / (1- x2 ) ]=- 1.990 91+ 0 .0 2 72 2 4 T+ 0 .0 0 794 4 U- 0 .0 0 0 913R+ 0 .5 912 0 2 ln[x1/ (1- x1) ],模外数据检验表明该预测模型具有较高的可靠性 ,可供生产上使用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The temporal dynamic of epidemic of Chinese fir anthracnose is of between the simple epidemic disease (polycyclic disease) and the polyetic epidemic disease, and nearly letter, which follows a logistic model. On the basis of the data obtained from observation of Chinese fir anthracnose, the multivariant linear stepwise regression prediction model was established by means of multivariant statistics, with disease index, pathogens temperature, relative humidity and rainfall as factors, the equation established being: ln[x 2/(1-x 2)]=-1.99091+0.027224T+0.007944U-0.000913R+0.591202ln[x 1/(1-x 1)]. This prediction equation has proved to be reliable and practicable as well.更多还原