【摘要】 用自回归求和滑动平均 (ARIMA)模型将湖北省发电量数据外推 ,应用中位移动平均法 ,将其分解成趋势项和周期项 ,提出了乘积模型 .预测结果显示此方法简单有效 ,对于季节时间序列的辩识、预测有实用价值 .更多还原

【Abstract】 Data of electrical energy generation in Hubei Province is pushed forward based on ARIMA model. The data can be resolved into trend term and periodical term by median moving average method. A product model is given. Prediction results show that the method is simple and effective. It is suitable for identifying and forecasting seasonal time series.更多还原