【摘要】 基于时间序列分解法，建立了降雨、水库来水的中长期预报模型。引入灰色系统理论来分离趋势项，并应用反馈模拟校正技术对预报结果作出实时校正，从预报结果可以看出，所建模型具有较好的适应性和预报精度。更多还原

【Abstract】  In this paper based on the time series decomposable method the model which forecasts medium and long－term rainfall and inflow of reservoirs is established． The theory of gray system is introduced to separate the trend item and feedback simulation real－time correct technique is also used to correct the predicted results．The model has good adaptability and precision．更多还原