【摘要】 舞毒蛾在山东省主要危害柿树 ,多年来发生严重 ,给生产造成很大损失。防治舞毒蛾的关键时期为幼虫孵化盛期。本文利用 3月下旬以后的日平均气温值和柿芽生长长度与舞毒蛾幼虫发生期的估测模型 ,Yi=12 0 742X1- 139 190 8和Yi=1 1115X2 + 0 6 6 42 ,并进行了生产实例验证 ,测报值符合率达 94%以上更多还原

【Abstract】 Lymantria dispar mainly harm the persimmon trees in Shandong Province They’ve occured much and caused enormous losses in our production for years The prevention and cure of this kind moths’ crucial period is the larvae’s common incubation This article takes advantage of the relation between the mean dayly temperature after late March and the persimmon sprouts’ growing length and the incubation rate of the larvaes Two forecast models have been set up to report the larvaes’occurrence period,Y i=12 0742X 1=139 1908 and Y i=1 1115X 2+0 6642 Tests and verifies of production living exampls have conducted,and the accuracy of the test is over 94 percent更多还原