【摘要】 ２０世纪９０年代以来，中国的总和生育率已降至更替水平以下，并呈递减态势。我们以目前政策允许的生育水平为低方案，设计了低、中、高三个生育率方案来观照２１世纪中国的人口前景，结果发现，虽然三种方案下我国的人口形势都不容乐观，但可以肯定的是，１．８的总和生育率较为适当，女性人口普遍生育二胎的提法是不可取的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1990s, total fertility rate of China has dropped to under the replace standard and decreased progressively. Regarding the fertility as the low scheme that is allowed by the present policy, we designed three birth rate schemes-low, medium and high to take population prospect of China into consideration in the 2lst century. The result shows that population situations in our country are not optimist under three kinds of schemes. But it is affinmed that the total fertility rate of 1.8 is comparatively proper, and the formulation that women give birth to two children is inadvisable.更多还原