【摘要】 在建立诊断影响华东地区热带气旋年频数异常概念模型的基础上 ,采用逐步回归方法构成用前期各月资料诊断预测华东地区热带气旋年频数的客观模式 ,历史拟合率较高 ,且进行了试用 ,证明有预测能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on diagnostic conceptual model of anomalous yearly frequency of tropical cyclone affecting East China, objective prediction models of yearly frequency of tropical cyclone affecting East China and Shanghai were constructed by using stepwise regression analysis. The prediction experiments were carried out and the results proved that the prediction models have predictive capacity.更多还原