【摘要】 目的 :了解邳州市居民急性心肌梗死 (AMI)死亡水平、分布及时间变动趋势 ,为制定防治策略提供科学依据。方法 :根据 2× C表线性回归显著性检验原理和灰色系统 GM(1∶ 1)模型对 1990年～1999年邳州市病伤死因年报 AMI死亡资料进行趋势分析和定量预测。结果 :10年来 ,AMI死亡率、减寿率均呈持续上升趋势 ,年均增长率分别为 11.88%和 5 .6 7%。预测至 2 0 0 4年 ,邳州市 AMI死亡率将达到46 .0 4/ 10万。结论 :本地区居民 AMI死亡率上升明显 ,AMI致死将成为影响居民健康的重要原因更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:In order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of acute miocardial infarction(AMI),the mortality level,distrbution and tendency of AMI in Pizhou area from 1990 to 1999 were analysed.Methods The data was collected from the yearly statistical reports of death reasons in Pizhou area during 1990～1999.Significance test of linear regress in 2 *c table and greysystem model GM(1∶1) were used to analyse death tendency and predictian .Results:In recent 10 years AMI death rate and YPLL rate were increasing,the yearly rising rate was 11.88% and 5.61% respectively.And the greysystem equation:t=157.154e 0.08858(t-1) -146.674.The AMI death rate predicted would increase to 46.04 /100,000 in 2004.Conclusion:In this area the death rate of AMI was increasing remarkably,and it would become the important factor to impact the residents health.更多还原