【摘要】 利用CERES Wheat、CERES Rice、SOYGRO等作物模型与大气环流模型GISSTransientRuns耦合 ,分析气候变化对长江中下游平原水稻、冬小麦和大豆生产的阶段性影响。结果表明 :在未来 5 0年 ,由于研究区域增温明显 ,将导致作物生育期显著缩短 ;如果仅考虑气候变化的间接影响 ,水稻、冬小麦、大豆作物都呈减产趋势 ;在综合考虑气候变化和CO2 浓度增加对作物的直接影响后 ,单季稻、冬小麦、大豆等都将增产 ,而双季稻区水稻的减产幅度虽有所缓和 ,但减产趋势不变。鉴于气候变化影响 ,提出了若干适应气候变化的农业对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The gradual effects of climate change on rice,winter wheat and soybean productions in the next 50 years in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River were assessed by connecting the crop models of CERES-Wheat,CERES-Rice and SOYGRO with the GISS GCM Transient Runs.The results showed that the growth durations of rice,winter wheat and soybean would be shorten significantly due to climate warming;the yields of these crops would be reduced if only considering the climate change effect,but when the combination effects of both climate change and CO₂ elevation on crop productions were considered,the yields of single harvest rice,winter wheat and soybean would be slightly increased and the yield reduction for double harvest rice would be palliated.Some adaptation strategies for food production in the studied region in future were also offered.更多还原