【摘要】 对青海湖萎缩干涸原因、发展趋势及其对生态环境的影响进行研究 ,结果表明 :(a)该湖泊的补给水量常常入不敷出 ,原因是受气候变化和人类经济活动等影响 ,其中湖区所受的人类活动影响较小 ;(b)湖水位的变化与人类耗用水量之间没有明显的联系 ,其水位变化基本上反映了该流域内的自然气候条件的变化 .针对青海湖流域的这一特点 ,采用线性扰动模型 (LPM) ,能较好地模拟青海湖的水位变化过程及预测未来的水位变化趋势更多还原

【Abstract】 Qinghaihu Lake is the largest saltwater lake in the northwestern arid region of China. Recharge to the lake basin is often less than the losses,resulting in the shrinking and drying up of the lake.The main causes of climatic changes and human economic activities are identified,and of the two factors,the latter has less effect on the lake.Researches show that the water level variation is not clearly related to water consumption by human beings, but basically reflects the changes of climatic conditions within the basin. According to this characteristic,the linear perturbation model (LPM) is adopted in this paper to simulate the process of water level variation of the lake and to predict its trend in the future.更多还原