【摘要】 根据中国西北近 5 0 0a旱涝等级资料 ,用Bernoulli试验等理论模式 ,对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究 ,得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下 ,给出了 2 1世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of the classes of flood/drought about five hundred years in northwest China, using the theoretical model of Bernoulli test and others, the character of probability was studied for the worst drought to occur, the statistical rule of the worst drought year to was occurred to be obtained. In the background of the climate getting warm over the world, the result of the statistical inference of probability of the worst drought year will occur to be given in the 21th century in northwest China.更多还原