【摘要】 基于月平均NCEP再分析资料（1958～1997年）以及中国336个台站月降水总量（1951～1994年），通过合成、相关以及统计显著性检验方法，研究了赤道西太平洋区域冬季环流状况与后期春夏季亚洲（东亚和南亚）季风环流变化的关系。研究结果表明，冬季赤道西太平洋环流状况对后期南亚季风和东亚季风以及我国夏季降水均有显著的滞后影响。冬季赤道西太平洋海域海平面气压偏高（低），对应反气旋（气旋）性环流异常，致使后期东亚和南亚夏季风均偏弱（强）以及我国长江流域夏季降水偏多（少），揭示了实施这种滞后影响的一般特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using monthly mean NCEP reanalysis data and monthly rainfall data of 36 stations in China, by means of composite correlation and statistical significant test, the relationship between winter circulation conditions over the tropical western Pacific and Asian monsoon circulation variations (in- cluding South and East Asia) of the following spring and summer is explored. The results clearly indi- cate that winter circulation condition over the tropical western Pacific predominantly influences the subsequent South and East Asia Monsoon circulations and summer rainfall in China. Having positive SLP anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, corresponding to anticyclone (cyclone) circulation anomalies, results in weaker (stronger) monsoon circulations over South and East Asia and more (less) summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Valley. The research reveals the general feature of the lag influ- ences更多还原