【摘要】 本文讨论了证券市场有效性与随机性之间的关系。通过分析随机条件异方差系列模型 ,阐述并论证了市场非稳定均衡的观点。在此基础上推导相应的股价预报模型 ,提出了市场预报理论的现实意义及其局限性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The relation between efficiency and stochastic character of security market is discussed.By analyzing the series of stochastic conditional heteroscedasticity models,we expound and demonstrate the viewpoint of market being nonstationary equilibrium and deduce corresponsive stock price forecasting models.The practical or immediate significances and limitations of security market forecasting theories are put forward.更多还原