【摘要】 鉴于区域是一个复杂系统 ,其中存在着许多错综复杂的关系 ,可以用解决非线性问题的系统动力学方法进行系统仿真模拟 .尝试用系统动力学方法进行战略环境评价 ,从人口、资本、环境三个方面对区域系统进行综合集成研究 ,模拟其动态变化趋势 ,为决策者提供决策支持 .基于可持续发展的目标 ,研究战略环境评价的方法 ,提出评价模型 .以长春市为例 ,对评价模型进行了验证 .仿真结果表明 ,资本、环境和人口三个子系统显著相关 ,任一系统的变化都会影响到其他系统 ,并且三个系统的变化呈现非线性关系 .更多还原

【Abstract】 As domain is a complex system where exists confused relations, the system dynamic method is applied to simulate the system. The paper tries to assess the strategic environment by the system dynamics method, synthetically studies the component of system, and simulates the dynamic trend, in order to support policymaker decision-making. On the base of the object of sustainable development, the paper studies the method of SEA, provides the model of assessment, tests and verifies the model by the example of Changchun. The result makes clear the components of system (sub-system) is nonlinear, the relations of them is coherent.更多还原