【摘要】 作为人类赖以生存和发展物质基础的土地资源有限性与人口的增长加剧了人地间的矛盾 ,土地资源人口承载力问题日益引起社会关注。在总结芜湖市土地资源利用现状、特点和当前人口食物消费水平的基础上分析了土地现实生产能力 ,同时为预测芜湖市 2 0 0 0、2 0 0 5、2 0 10年人口数量、复种指数、耕地面积及粮食单产发展趋势而分别建立了一元线性回归模型与灰色系统 GM(1,1)模型 ,通过取其平均值以提高其精度 ;并结合温饱型、宽裕型、小康型与富裕型四种消费水平分别探讨了预测期内芜湖市土地资源人口承载力状况 ,最后从耕地总量动态平衡、提高粮食单产与质量及控制人口增长等方面提出了可持续发展对策 ,为芜湖市建立稳定、协调、持续发展的人地关系提供科学的理论依据更多还原

【Abstract】 Land resources provide substantial foundation for human’s subsistence and development. With the intensification of the contradiction between the expanding population and the reducing land resources, the problem of the population supporting capacity has been giving rise to social concerns.In this paper, the actual land productivity has been analyzed on the basis of the characteristic and the current utilization of land resources and food consumption level. By means of linear regression model and grey system GM(1,1) model, the population, the cultivated land area and the grain yield of Wuhu Region in the years of 2000,2005 and 2010 have been forecasted .In order to improve the precision, the average value of the two models has been adopted. According to the four consumption levels, saturated, well-off, comparatively well-off and surplus, the population supporting capacity of land resources in forecasted years have been discussed. In order to enhance the population supporting capacity of land resources, some measures have been put forward, such as controlling population, raising the per unit area yield of grain and improving grain quality, which provide scientific and theoretical basis to establish a stable and harmonized sustainable development relationship between human beings and land resources in Wuhu Region.更多还原