【摘要】 通过分析黄河下游枯季径流的影响因素 ,主要为花园口水文站径流量和下游的引黄量这两个因子 ,花园口水文站径流量和下游的引黄量可作为输入层中的影响因子 ,下游利津站的流量作为输出层。应用多层前向人工神经网络理论 ,构造四套枯季径流实时预测的BP神经网络模型 ,使用花园口—利津水文站 2 6年的完整序列测流资料训练和检验网络并用于预测更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing the influence factors of dry season run-off in the lower Yellow River, it is clear that Huayuankou station runoff discharge and supporting water are influence factors. This two factors are regarded as input layer, Lijin station runoff discharge is output layer. According to the influence factors analysis and by applying the Artificial Neural Network theory, four BP models were established. The models are trained and tested by using data of 26 years of Huayuankou station and Lijin station. BP models of dry season runoff prediction in the lower Yellow River are set up to predict the dry season run-off in the lower Yellow River.更多还原