【摘要】 介绍了全球气候变化对环境经济影响的复杂性研究的基本框架及模型 ,给出了用这些模型对中国经济安全模拟的结果。结果表明 ,全球气候变化条件下 ,若不考虑不确定性 ,中国的粮食安全是可以保证的 ;若考虑不确定性 ,则在最严重的情况下 ,中国未来的粮食生产存在 7%～ 8%的缺口。采用最大强度开源的方法 ,在全球气候变化和保持原有产业结构的条件下 ,要实现我国 2 0 30年的经济目标是不行的。但是 ,通过调整产业结构 ,降低单位产出水耗 ,在保证水资源安全的条件下则是可行的更多还原

【Abstract】 The problem of economy security under the changes of global climate is paid more attention all over the world now. And its complexity and indeterminacy become a focus in research. The present paper discusses the problem of Chinese economy security under the changes of global climate in three steps. First, the complexity of changes of global climate is analyzed. Through the analysis a model could being used to evaluate the environment and economy security under the changes of global climate is obtained. This model is based on the model of Lave and Shevliakova. Second, a mathematic simulation about proportion of food demand and supply from 2025 to 2050 in China is given by SEI model. Through the simulation two conclusions are obtained. They are (1) in 2025, if food consumption level in China keeps the level of 1990 then there is no problem of food security. If food consumption level is improved then there is problem of food shortage. And the percentage of food shortage is about 7%～8%; (2) in 2050, if the population in China is in control then there is no problem of food security. Because now the population in some areas is not in control actually, in the future the proportion of food demand and supply will keep in 0.92～1.04. Third, the analysis of water problem in China based on the statistic data in 1985 is given. In the analysis a general equilibrium model is used. By the calculation and the analysis a conclusion that the affection of water under the changes of global climate could not lead to problems of economy security in China is gained.更多还原