【摘要】 目的　分析北京城区居民牙科服务需要与需求状况 ,预测未来需求水平。方法　分层、整群、随机抽取北京市区居民 15 17人进行口腔健康状况和需要与需求问卷调查。结果　患病率97 6 % ,1年就诊率 31 5 % ,总年需要人数较实际需求多 44 12 0 10人 ,潜在需求主要由认识因素、供方服务造成。预测消除认识因素、供方服务的影响 ,需求将分别增加 6 9 4%和 13 2 % ,到 2 0 0 5年需求量将增加 1 14% ,2 0 10年将增加 3 76 %。结论　口腔患病率和需求水平差距大 ,需求层次不合理 ,潜在需求由供需双方因素造成 ,在 3种假设下预测了规划年牙科服务的需求水平更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the needs and demands for dental services in urban residents of Beijing, and to forecast developmental trends of dental demand in the future Methods There were 1 517 subjects examined by a stratified, clustering, random sampling, and a questionnaire survey were completed Results The prevalence of oral diseases was 97 6%, but only 31 5% of subjects visited the dentist in a year, the total number of residents who had need of dental care were 4 412 010 more than that of demand level Potential demand was mainly due to the negative awareness of people and problems from service provider It was predicted that, if the potential demand caused by awareness and service provider were satisfied, the demand for dental care would increase by 69 4% and 13 2%, respectively By the year of 2005, the demand will increase by 1 14%, and the value will be 3 76% in 2010 Conclusions A substantial discrepancy is found between oral disease presence and demand for dental service The levels of demand are also irrational The large potential demand is caused by both receiver and provider′s factors At last, the future demand for dental care is forecasted under three hypothesis更多还原