【摘要】 利用所定义的农业干旱指数和该区内 18个站点连续 30年的资料 ,分析了旱地农业干旱的区域差异和时间变化规律。根据所建立的指标分析 ,该区可分为不旱、轻旱、中等干旱和重旱 4种年型和 4个不同的区域 ,即东北部沿海平原轻旱区、北部及东部沿海中等干旱区、中部及山前平原严重干旱区和黑龙港特旱区。农业干旱风险分析技术的应用则从管理的角度考虑 ,进一步分析农业生产遭受不同干旱的可能性以及在不同风险水平下会遭受何种程度的农业干旱。更多还原

【Abstract】 Drought is a severe natural hazard in agricultural production in Beijing Tianjin Hebai Plain Area (BTHPA) in the North China Plain. A new agricultural drought index (CSDI) expressed by a relative yield was introduced, and spatial and temporal variations of agricultural drought in this rainfed area were analyzed. Through analysis of the CSDI values of 18 representative spots distributed in BTHPA from the year of 1961 to 1990, four types of agricultural drought in this area can be concluded. According to the severity of agricultural drought, the area could be divided into four regions, i.e. the northeast coastal plain with light drought, the north plain and east coastal plain with medium drought, the central plain and west plain with heavy drought, and Hei Long Gang area with extreme severe drought. Risk analysis on agricultural drought further revealed the possibility of drought stricken in agricultural production in the area.更多还原