【摘要】 本文根据１９５７～１９９２年有关牛流行热的发病资料，应用灰色系统理论对其长期预测方法进行了初步探讨。比较ＧＭ（１，１）模型、ＲＣＩ．ＧＭ（１，１）模型及其残差修正模型，发现ＲＣＩ．ＧＭ（１，１）模型的残差修正模型预测精度最优，达９７．０３％，其时间响应式为．ｘ（１）＝－３５．４３ｅ－０．０３７４４０５（ｋ－１）＋３７．４３－１２．７９８ｅ－０．００７７９８５６２（Ｋ－１）＋１２．８９６。更多还原

【Abstract】 On collecting datum of Bovine Epizootic Fever(BEF) from 1957 to 1992, a long periods of gray model was established for forecasting BEF by using gray theories. After comparing GM(1,1)、RCI. GM(1,1) and its ameliorated models, we found that ameliorated model of RCI. GM (1,1) was the best whose equation is X(1)=-35.43e-0.0374405(k-1)+37.43-12.798e-0.007798562(K-1)+ 12. 896.更多还原