【摘要】 本文根据１９９２年－１９９８年有关布鲁氏菌病感染率资料，采用灰色系统理论分别建立了ＧＭ（１，１）和一元线性回归预测模型，并对羊布鲁氏菌病感染率模型的精度作了比较分析，结果表明ＧＭ（１，１）模型平均相对误差小，方法简便。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using Brucellosis prevalence datum from 1992 to 1998, two models for forecasting the infection rate of Brucellosis were established based on gray theories, i. e. monadic linear regression analysis and GM (l, 1 ). After comparing their accuracy it was concluded that the GM (l, 1 ) was better in average relative error and simplicity than the other.更多还原