【摘要】 改进了文 [1]中负荷数据序列的Lyapunov指数计算方法 ,提高了Lyapunov指数的计算精度并增强了可靠性。这种建立在非线性混沌改进模型基础上的预测方法不仅对小数据组可靠 ,而且计算量小、相对容易操作。通过对华东某电网实际负荷数据进行的预测显示 ,精度明显优于文 [1]中的方法 ,且具有较强的自适应能力和通用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The calculation method of Lyapunov exponent for the load time series in [1] is improved. Furthermore, the calculating precision and reliability are increased. The forecasting method based on non linear chaotic model is not only reliable to small data sets, but also of little account amount and easy to handle. The short term load forecasting of a certain electric network in East China shows that the precision outgoes the method in [1],and the improved method has adaptive ability itself and general use.更多还原