【摘要】 利用随机过程理论研究了复杂可修系统的可靠性规律，用随机过程模型中的Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ过程来描述复杂可修系统的可靠性规律。用Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ方法模拟验证了Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ过程模型的参数估计公式。其中参数β的最大似然估计误差低于２％，λ的最大似然估计误差低于７％。两组试验数据的处理结果表明Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ过程模型有较高的拟合精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Reliability laws of complex maintainble system are studied by the theory of stochastic processes. Reli- ability laws of complex maintainable system are studied by the weibull Process model,which is one Kinds of stochastic processes model.Based on Monte Carlo method,the parameter estimation formula of Weibull Process model is evaluated by a computer simulation program.The maximal error value of parameter"β"estima - tion in Weibull Process model is less than 20% .The maximal error value of parameter"λ"estimation in Weibull Process model is less than 7% .The simulation precision of weibull Process model is higher,which is confirmed by two experiment data results更多还原