【摘要】 利用生命表理论与人口统计资料 ,模拟台闽地区人口至 2 0 50年的增长。模拟结果显示台闽地区总人数将于 2 0 2 0年至 2 0 2 5年间达到高峰 ,约为 2 3 50～ 2 4 0 0万人。其后则逐渐减少 ,到 2 0 50年可能减少为 2 1 0 0余万至 2 2 0 0余万人。预测出生率逐年显著下降 ,至 2 0 50年时 ,每年每 1 0 0 0人约仅生育 1 0人。男性与女性人口总数的差距有减少的趋势 ;性比率将于 2 0 2 0年至 2 0 3 0年间更接近 1∶ 1。年龄结构的变化趋势显示台闽地区人口逐渐老化 ;65岁以上的老年人口数逐年增加 ,2 0 50年时将超过 1 8%。扶养比于 1 985至 2 0 0 5年间下降 ,2 0 1 0年后则上升。若分别考虑老年人口与幼年人口 ,老年扶养比自 1 985起持续增加 ,而幼年扶养比则先逐年下降 ,至 2 0 1 0年后逐渐趋于稳定更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the life table theory and demographic data, the growth of Taiwan population is predicted to the year 2050. The predicted population will reach 23 5 to 24 million during the period 2020～2025, then it will begin decreasing to about 21 or 22 millions by the year 2050. The birth rate will gradually decrease and will stabilize at about 10 newborn per 1000 people by the year 2050. The trend of age structure shows that the elder population will proportionally increase. There will be more than 18% elder population (age 65 or older) by the year 2050. Since 1985, the elder dependency ratio has and will continue to increase constantly, while the young dependency ratio will decrease until stabilizing after the year 2010.The predicted total dependency ratio decreases between 1985 and 2010, after that it increases again.更多还原