【摘要】 本文在文献 [1] [2 ]的基础上 ,构造了色噪声驱动下的根系层储水量动态变化的概念性随机模型 ;利用数值方法对模型进行求解 ,得到了根系层储水量的概率密度函数 ,利用禹城站大型蒸渗仪 1997年冬小麦返青期的观测资料对模拟结果进行了验证 .验证结果表明 ,本文建立的概念性随机模型是有效的 ,可以用于田间墒情预报更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, a conceptual\|stochastic model for predicting the dynamic variation of soil water storage in crop root zone was established. In the model, the stochastic potential evapotranspiration process was incorporated into a soil water balance equation of the root zone, thus a time dependent, stochastic differential equation was derived. Furthermore, the Fokk\|Planck equation corresponding to the differential equation was derived and solved numerically.The probability density distribution, mean and standard deviation of soil water storage in root zone were obtained.The comparison of predicted mean and confidence band at 95% with the measured soil water storage shows that the model is effective in soil water storage prediction.更多还原