【摘要】 :利用四川省执行世行贷款中国血吸虫病控制项目的血吸虫病流行调查和监测数据及非贷款县的血吸虫病防治工作年报数据。采用移动平均数法等方法预测显示 ,1 999～ 2 0 0 1年全省现有主要血吸虫病流行区人群血吸虫病感染率将缓慢上升 ,病人数将逐渐增加 ;全省耕牛血吸虫病感染率和病牛数将呈反复波动趋势 ,有螺面积将呈逐年小幅下降趋势 ;并对有关问题进行了讨论。提示不仅要保持、而且应增强防治力度 ,才能巩固、发展执行世行贷款中国血吸虫病控制项目期间所取得的血防成果。为全省制定血吸虫病防治规划提供了可靠的依据更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of epidemiological survey and surveillance activities during implementing World Bank Loan for Schistosomiasis Control Program in 41 loan counties from 1992 to 1998, and the data of control program annual report in 18 non loan counties from 1992 to 1998, an analysis for prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence trend in Sichuan has been made by moving average method etc. The result showed that from 1999 to 2001, human infection rate would slowly be going up and the number of patients then gradually increased in most endemic areas, while the cattle infection rate and number of infected cattle would be repeatedly fluctuated. Besides, snail habitat area would gradually be decreased within a small margin. The analysis provides the scientific basis for drafting the plan ahead. In the paper, it has been suggested by the authors that for consolidating the achieved control effect, efforts for carrying out control program should be maintained or even strengthened.更多还原