【摘要】 目的 :探讨三维自回归趋势面模型技术在HFRS时 空动态分析预测中的应用价值。方法 :在二维自回归趋势面模型基础 ,通过加入时间变量t ,构造三维自回归趋势面模型。结果 :获得三维自回归趋势面模型及其建模方法。结论 :该模型不仅可分析HFRS的空间趋势 ,而且可预测其空间趋势的时间变化特征更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To explore the applicability of tridimensional autoregression trend surface model in studying the spacetime dynamic of disease.Methods:Based on the spatial correlation or autocorrelation hypotheses,the bidimensional autoregression trend surface model was put forward.By using the time variable t,tridemensional autoregression trend surface model was eatablished.Results:The tirdimensional autoregression trend surface model and the method to build this model were obtained.Conclusion:In studying the spatial distribution and its spacetime dynamic of disease,not only the spatial distribution dynamic of disease,but also its spacetime dynamic can be analyzed by fitting tridimensional autoregression trend surface model.更多还原