【摘要】 婚姻拥挤问题是中国人口转变过程中面临的热点问题之一。本文就此提出了一些新的概念和分析模型 ,对婚姻拥挤的测度方法进行了探讨 ,并在实际人口数据的基础上采用婚配性别比测试对中国曾经与即将发生的婚姻拥挤进行了分析与比较。本文从终身不婚比例、初婚年龄和夫妇年龄差三个方面对于婚姻拥挤的后果进行了分析。研究表明 ,我国现阶段出生性别比失调对未来婚姻拥挤的影响不可忽视 ,但是并不像一些传媒所宣传的那样严重更多还原

【Abstract】 Marriage squeeze becomes one of the hot issues in population transition of China. This paper proposes some new theoretical concepts,and suggests a new approach to measure marriage squeeze,which is applied to population data to analyze the marriage squeeze in China in the past and the near future.This paper also analyzes the consequences of marriage squeeze in the three aspects of proportion of lifetime unmarried,age of first marriage, and age difference between the couples.The analysis turns out that imbalance of sex ratio at birth in recent years will result in marriage squeeze in near future,but it may not be so severe as exaggerated in mass media.更多还原