【摘要】 本文运用计量经济分析模型 ,对上海 1 978～ 1 999年的消费需求动态及其影响因素进行了全面的验证。文章指出 :制度的市场化进程在提高经济效率的同时 ,也在一定程度上增大了人们收入与支出预期的不确定性 ,使人们的消费行为有渐趋谨慎的走向。因此 ,扩张经济固然重要 ,但是完善制度改革的配套体系更是刻不容缓。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper applies econometric model to verify comprehensively the changes in consumption growth and their influence factors (1978～1999). The article indicates that the reforms of economic institutions promote economic efficiency, and increase the uncertainty in income and expenditure expectaion in some degree, making consumers cantiously. Therefore, expanding economy is still very important, and perfecting the coordination systems of institution changes is pressing.更多还原