【摘要】 我国人口转变在世纪之交实现了阶段性的突破，完成了传统意义上的人口转变历程并不意味着我国人口问题的解决，也不等于人口压力的减轻，更不能说人口与计划生育使命的结束。本文以我国现行的计划生育政策为基础，对未来５０年的人口发展趋势做了预测，分析了在稳定低生育水平的过程中可能出现的不利因素，意在说明２１世纪上半叶，特别是２０１０年以前我国人口与计划生育工作的重要性和艰巨性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The low fertility stage of the demographic transition in China does not mean that China’s population problem is solved, hence, does not mean that the mission of population and family planning work is completed. This article projects China’s population trends in the next 50 years and analyzes the disadvantageous factors that might be encountered in the process of stabilizing the low fertility, which particularly aims to demonstrate the importance and arduousness of the popula- tion and family planning work before 2010.更多还原