【摘要】 在给出小概率事件定义与评估小概率事件预报成功率参数的基础上 ,根据参数变换后的表达式推断 :变小概率事件为条件概率下的大概率事件 ,是提高小概率事件预报成功率的一条途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the definition of rare events to be given and the assessment of the successful parameters forecasting rare events,an equation by parament transformation was suggested.It can be seen that a method to improve the forecast accuracy of rare events is to turn the rare eveuts from very little probability into large probability by conditional probability.更多还原